Local lockdowns creating regional differences in consumer confidence

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Shopper confidence is starting to experience regional differences as local lockdowns are introduced across the country, new research reveals.

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The IGD Shopper Confidence Index stood at -8 for July, which is slightly down on June. Despite remaining low, the score is considered to be generally stable.

The data shows shopper confidence has decreased significantly in the North of England, dropping from -3 in June to -9 in July. This comes at a time when a spike in cases has resulted in local lockdowns affecting large parts of the North of England. Wales has also seen a large decline in confidence, falling from -1 in June to -13 in July. In contrast, confidence has increased in Scotland.

The figures show shoppers aged 18-24-years-old are more confident in July with a score of +3 – the highest level since August 2019. In contrast, those aged 65 and over are less confident this month. These shoppers are more fearful of food price inflation and more fearful they will be worse off financially in the year ahead.

The research reveals 83% of all shoppers expect food prices to get more expensive in the year ahead, the highest level since June 2013.

Simon Wainwright, director of global insight at IGD, said: “As local lockdowns are enforced across the country we will likely see more of a split in confidence between regions as the impacts of Covid-19 become more localised. While July’s data shows an increase in confidence among Scottish shoppers, we anticipate a different picture for August following the news of Aberdeen’s lockdown.

“It is likely that younger shoppers have been particularly boosted by the generally warm weather and the relaxation of some lockdown measures including the reopening of non-essential retail and the hospitality sector. Job security was also boosted by the extension of the job retention scheme until October and the support for the foodservice sector.

“We predict that shopper confidence is likely to remain fragile as shoppers contend with the impact of a deep economic downturn in 2020.”