Toyota CEO Predicts Limited EV Market Share Growth by 2030

In a recent interview with Automotive News, Toyota CEO Ted Ogawa revealed his projection that electric vehicles (EVs) would only constitute 30% of the U.S. new-vehicle market by 2030, a figure significantly lower than the EPA’s previous target. Ogawa emphasized Toyota’s focus on meeting customer demand, primarily through various levels of “electrification,” particularly hybrids with gasoline engines.

Despite industry trends favoring greater EV adoption, Toyota appears committed to its hybrid strategy. The company is investing heavily in a $13.9 million battery complex in North Carolina to support its EV and hybrid offerings in North America. Since 2021, Toyota has allocated approximately $17 billion to its U.S. manufacturing operations, with a predominant focus on hybrid production.

Ogawa acknowledged the regulatory challenges posed by proposed emissions standards and indicated a willingness to address any gaps through credit purchases. He underscored Toyota’s belief that such purchases would be more financially prudent than investing in BEVs that might not align with consumer demand.

While Toyota remains one of the leading automakers globally, its EV sales lag significantly behind, comprising less than 1% of total sales in 2023. Ogawa acknowledged this gap but expressed confidence in Toyota’s ability to catch up, highlighting ongoing efforts to develop both EV products and supporting infrastructure.

Commentary on the situation suggests that Toyota’s stance isn’t surprising given its historical commitment to hybrids. Critics have raised concerns about the company’s reluctance to fully embrace EVs and its tendency to label hybrid models as “electrified,” potentially confusing consumers.

Looking ahead, Toyota faces additional challenges, including the potential entry of Chinese automakers into the U.S. market. Ogawa acknowledged concerns about competition from China but emphasized Toyota’s superior product offerings. However, questions remain about how Toyota will maintain competitiveness, particularly regarding pricing, amidst evolving market dynamics.

The comments section reflects a broader sentiment that the automotive industry is on the brink of a significant transition toward EVs. Many commenters cite examples like Norway, where EV adoption rapidly outpaced traditional vehicles. Some express skepticism about Toyota’s readiness for this shift, suggesting that the company risks irrelevance if it fails to adapt quickly.

Toyota’s conservative approach to EVs contrasts with industry trends and regulatory targets, raising questions about its long-term competitiveness and relevance in an increasingly electrified automotive landscape.