Consumer spending boost predicted for second half of the year 

Print

Grocery spending, up just 2.7%, recorded its slowest growth since September 2022, due to falling food price inflation, which reached its lowest level (5.0%) since January 2022, according to Barclays.

SHOPPERS.jpg

Despite this, concerns about general inflation have risen to 87%, after hitting a record low last month (84%).

Consumers are also said to be increasingly concerned about the impact of shrinkflation, at 80% versus 78% the previous month, the data showed.

Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: “Retailers were braced for a more subdued start to 2024, and recent figures are in line with expectations. The wet weather has been a key factor in the slowdown in discretionary spending.

“However, in spite of this initial lull, many retailers are confident that spending will rebound in the coming months, particularly in anticipation of better weather, the energy price cap drop, an uplift in the National Minimum Wage, and the buzz around major events such as Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and the Paris 2024 Olympics.”

Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, said: “While still only tentative, the signs that the UK economy is expanding into 2024 continue to build.

“With an expectation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from June, and banks responding by reducing mortgage rates, our research suggests that the housing costs that have been a drag on consumers for over a year are on the cusp of a turn and will become a boost to spending from H2 and beyond.

“Today’s data shows this transition happening in real time.”

Have your say

or a new account to join the discussion.