Survey: More than 50% of vapers think price increase will boost black market

By Tony Corbin in Industry News 21st March 2024

Following the recent announcement of a new vaping tax which will make products more expensive from October 2026, new insights from research and insights agency Opinium reveal that more than half (56%) of current vapers predict black market e-cigarette and vape sales will increase if prices rise.

Despite the tax being introduced to primarily curb youth vaping, the majority (66%) of vapers also think more children will buy products on the black market as a result – and among the UK public overall, 54% agree with this view.

Meanwhile, with the government intending to ban disposable vapes in early 2025, Opinium’s research finds that 62% of vapers say this will drive more adults to buy them on the black market.

Half (50%) of UK adults believe that more children will buy disposable vapes on the black market when they are banned – and 63% of vapers think the same.

When thinking about the other measures the government is considering introducing, more than a quarter (27%) of vapers don’t believe any of those listed would reduce the number of vapes or e-cigarettes that they purchase. Only a minority of vapers think the changes will reduce their own consumption habits:

Increasing the price of e-cigarettes / vapes (27%)
Banning disposable e-cigarettes / vapes (23%)
Keeping e-cigarettes / vapes behind shop counters and not on display (17%)
Standardising all e-cigarette / vape packaging (e.g. removing branding / colours) (14%)
Reducing the number of e-cigarette / vape flavours available to purchase (13%)

Similarly, a minority of vapers think the measures will deter children from purchasing too.

Less than a third (27%) think increasing the price will reduce the number of vapes purchased by those under 18, while just a quarter (25%) think that standardising all packaging will discourage children and teens from purchasing them.

Only two in five (41%) think the ban on disposable vapes and e-cigarettes will reduce vape purchases among those under 18, followed by 38% who believe preventing e-cigarettes being on display behind shop counters will work.

Kendall Knight, senior research executive at Opinium, said: “The government has announced bold action to reduce the level of vaping in the UK, particularly among young people.

“However, the majority of vapers do not expect this will encourage them – or children – to reduce or quit their habit. Many think that the new measures will drive more adults and children to buy products on the black market, meaning they will have not passed the required regulatory requirements and quality checks, which is clearly worrying.”