Facing a second wave

By Liz Wells in Talking Points 14th August 2020

Much of the talk around coronavirus in recent weeks has centred on the possibility of a so-called ‘second wave’ after increases in infection rates in countries like Spain and Belgium and local lockdowns in the UK such as those in Preston and Aberdeen. The theory of a second wave is based largely on the influenza pandemic of 1918, but those were very different times and this is a very different virus. Truth is, there is no agreed definition of what constitutes a second wave and experts are far from certain one will occur at all.

Yet while we are unlikely to see a tsunami of new cases as we did in March, in all likelihood we will see upsurges and local outbreaks, so the country needs to be ready to deal with the consequences. That’s true for private businesses as it is for the government and it was interesting to hear cash and carry operator Parfetts announce last week that it had put in place contingency plans to deal with a possible second wave and associated lockdowns, whether regional or national. The wholesaler already has two depots – in Manchester and Halifax – situated in local lockdown areas and has worked hard to make sure it has adequate stocks of everything from flour to toilet rolls.

Clearly, it’s a tricky thing to plan for, as shopper behaviour is unlikely to follow exactly the same patterns as it did in March. The public has been through lockdown once, has seen what self-isolation looks like, and will now have more confidence the food supply chain can hold up under pressure.

Nevertheless, it would be prudent for independent retailers to put their thinking caps on, try to predict some of the likely scenarios and put in place appropriate measures. Retailer Miv Chahal – the first of our Unsung Heroes of 2020 – has already done just that by making sure he has adequate stocks in reserve and that he is making optimum use of his storage facilities. Other independent retailers would be wise to take a similar approach.

Speak to your wholesaler or symbol group; think about your stock levels, opening hours and staffing arrangements. While a second wave is not inevitable, it is still a good idea to have contingencies. Or in other words – as they say in the Cubs – be prepared.

David Shrimpton | Editor