Talking Retail Grocery and product news for independent retailers
In response, Forrester principal forecast analyst Jitender Miglani has commented on how this will specifically impact the retail market in the UK.
“The UK’s real GDP growth was nearly flat in 2023, and we expect the same in 2024. The slightly negative real GDP growth during the last two quarters of 2023 was primarily driven by a strong decline in exports. Household consumption growth has been positive, and we expect it to remain so in 2024.
“Retail volumes will increase as interest rates are gradually brought down, and inflation eases further. Indeed, we predict retail sales, excluding fuel and auto sales, will grow by 4% in 2024.”
That, perhaps surprisingly, upbeat response was echoed by Nicholas Hyett, investment analyst at Wealth Club, who said: “With inflation lower than expected this week, the news the UK is in recession will lead to growing pressure for the Bank of England to cut interest rates.
“But, while recession is clearly bad news for the UK economy, it’s worth bearing in mind that, as recessions go, this is still a very mild one, and might yet get revised out of existence altogether. Whether today’s recession transforms into something that’s remembered outside the pages of an economic history textbook remains to be seen.”
