Huge number of smokers buying illegal tobacco will rise even higher with generational ban, says TMA

This is the ninth year that this survey has been carried out and trends are presented where possible.

This year’s survey points to five central findings:

1. 80% of those surveyed bought tobacco in the last year that was not subject to UK tax (that’s a 6% increase since 2022 – and even higher than the ‘pre-Covid level’ of 76% in 2019).
2. Nearly three-quarters of respondents have seen an illegal 20-pack of cigarettes priced between £3.00-£6.00 (compared to the mean average RRP of £15.26 for a legally priced 20-pack of cigarettes).
3. 35% of people buy ‘branded’ tobacco at least once a week, and 1 in 5 people only buy ‘branded’ cigarettes and Roll-Your-Own tobacco, even though all legal tobacco has been sold in plain packaging in the UK since 2016.
4. Almost two-thirds of respondents claimed repeated hikes in tobacco taxes coupled with ‘cost of living’ pressures, have changed their tobacco spending habits (i.e. where they buy tobacco from) up from 39% in 2022.
5. Every region has seen an increase in the purchase of illegal tobacco since 2019 – except in the South East, where there has been no change.

The TMA said the illegal tobacco market is now growing despite repeated government attempts to curb the problem.

While the number of adult smokers in the UK has decreased by 30% (to 12% of the UK population) since the TMA commissioned its first ‘Anti-Illicit Trade Survey’ in 2014, the number of respondents who claim to purchase non-UK duty paid tobacco has reached a new high point of 80%, with 1 in 5 smokers only buying ‘branded’ tobacco, even though all legal tobacco has been sold in plain packaging in the UK since 2016 – eight years’ ago.

It added that repeated tax rises coupled with continuing ‘cost of living’ pressures have had a cumulative impact on consumer spending behaviour and pushed many consumers towards buying illegal tobacco through criminal channels.

The TMA feels the government’s proposed ‘phased generational ban’ (or de facto prohibition) on any adult born after 31 December 2008 from ever legally being able to buy tobacco risks pushing an even larger share of the UK’s tobacco market underground – with every passing year – into the hands of the organised criminal gangs that spread violence and disorder up and down the country.

Rupert Lewis, director of the TMA said: The illegal tobacco market in the UK has now reached an inflection point. In previous years, the TMA Anti-Illicit Trade Survey has painted a picture of a stubbornly resilient illegal tobacco trade, which in spite of overall smoking rates downtrending year-on-year, has remained resistant to decline.

“The latest evidence in this year’s survey, canvassing the views of over 12,000 adult smokers across the UK, points to the highest increase in consumers who are buying illegal tobacco at least once in the last year – 80% of those surveyed – and even more worrying, 1 in 5 respondents claim to only buy branded tobacco products which have been illegal in the UK since 2016.

“Repeated increases in tobacco taxes and ongoing cost of living pressures are changing consumer behaviour and driving more smokers to buy illegal tobacco through criminal channels. This is especially alarming, given the government’s intention to introduce a ‘phased generational ban’ on the purchase of all tobacco from 1 January 2027.

“I believe that there will be profound and far-reaching repercussions for consumers, retailers, law enforcement agencies and communities across the UK if a phased generational ban becomes law.

In time, it will push the entire UK tobacco market underground, and I urge the government to reflect hard on the consequences of this policy decision and the lasting impact that it will have on the UK.”